3 weeks to the playoffs!

Things are getting clearer, but there are still 7 teams playing musical chairs for 4 playoff spots. Lots could happen between now and W15.

Over the next few weeks, I will turn my attention to playoff predictions. I’ll only predict playoff eligibility for now, as playoff performance is still too far out to predict. That would be like trying to forecast an October hurricane in July.

Let me begin with two confessions.

First, I am not a Fantasy professional. There are many, many value-driven decision trees that govern fantasy football best practice, and I haven’t put enough time into understanding them. I know the basics, but I’m an amateur. My analysis will have holes.

Second, I can’t predict the future. The actual outcome of the next 3 weekends will be influenced by injuries, bad performances, breakout performances, and chaos caused by players, coaches, referees, doctors, and winter storms. Life is entropy and success is merely the product of positive chance outcomes.

So, what can I do? I can make observations regarding the strengths and weaknesses possessed by each team in our league as they pertain to increasingly unlikely branches of tiebreaker scenarios that could play out in the next 3 weeks.

So let’s do it!

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The Facts:

• The playoffs consist of 4 spots:
  • Each division will send its top team to the playoffs. These will be the #1 and #2 seeds in the playoff bracket. 
  • Next, there are two at-large playoff bids for the #3 and #4 seeds. All remaining players who are not division champions are eligible for these playoff seeds.
• Seeding is determined by overall win-loss record. Tiebreakers then follow a pattern of head-to-head (H2H) records, Total Points For, Total Points Against, and finally coin flip.
• Interestingly, every remaining regular season matchup will be East vs West. Wins in one division will happen at the expense of losses in the other, which will be an important factor while making seed predictions.
• The East Division is:
  • Chelsea (6-5)
  • Blake (5-6)
  • Josh (5-6)
  • Kayla (4-7).
• The West Division is:
  • Jean (8-3)
  • Veronicca (7-4)
  • Zac (5-6)
  • Joe (4-7).

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Commissioner’s Playoff Rankings:

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#7 – Kayla

With a cratered roster, Kayla would need true chaos to emerge from this season in a playoff position. Injuries held her down all season, but the news about Burrow this weekend might just be the nail in the coffin. With Zac, Jean, and Veronicca still on her schedule, Kayla will be lucky to escape the regular season with more than 5 wins.

Reason for Hope: Running backs. Kayla has McCaffrey, Gibbs, Barkley, and Taylor, which is one of the healthiest RB groups in our league. If Brock Purdy can be her answer at QB, miracles are still possible.

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#6 – Josh

Speaking of miracles, that’s about all that’s left for Josh following a 62pt W11 where 3 of his starters ended their seasons with first quarter injuries. For Josh to reach the postseason, he needs a very specific set of circumstances to play out, which include Kayla finishing perfect and Blake losing to Joe. The odds of the planets aligning by tomorrow are slim…

Reason for Hope: If the Texans, Rams, and Jets keep winning, they’ll hand Josh outsized Fantasy performances as they pull out all the stops in their own races to the playoffs. 

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#5 – Zac

A roller coaster of a season could land Zac in the 4th seed for the playoffs, but most scenarios have him finishing 5th. In the event of a tie for the last at-large playoff spot between some threesome of Zac, Blake, Josh, or Veronicca, Zac will need H2H ties in order to take advantage of his Total Points For tie-breaking advantage. Too many things have to happen just the right way—more likely that Zac finishes 1 win behind the other at-large contenders and enters the postseason as the Consolation Bracket favorite. The big question that will determine Zac’s fate: when will playoff-bound Miami and Detroit begin resting his starters?

Reason for Hope: With a roster that scored 160+pts three times this season, it’s not impossible to believe that Zac could get hot again. Additionally, Tyreek Hill is competing with AJ Brown for a few all-time NFL receiving records, and Mike McDaniel is the kind of coach that would keep that in mind when calling plays…

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#4 – Blake

The split of Blake and Chelsea across seeds 2 & 4 is difficult to nail down, but ultimately I believe that Blake will find himself at #4. Blake could easily end up tied with Chelsea atop the East; he is likely to win at least once more before the end of the season, probably more. Both Blake and Chelsea have strong rosters, but both are high-centered in NFL teams that might soon begin to throw games in pursuit of Caleb Williams in next year’s draft (yes, that happens). All things being equal, Blake is 1 game and 15pts behind Chelsea, so I’m picking Blake for #4.

Reason for Hope: Blake is a savvy Fantasy manager. When his all-Packers approach fell through, he pivoted and managed to stay in contention. He is prescient on the waivers and steadfast behind his stars. Despite the divisional dregs that might begin to weigh down his roster, Blake has tinkered his way to a playoff-caliber team. This guy is a contender.

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#3 – Veronicca

Most ways you slice it, Veronicca’s team is the second best in the league this year. With the most points scored of any team (averaging 137pts per weekend!), her team is so good that I reserve the right to be wrong—she could end up at #1. I’m keeping her at #3, though, for the simple reason that her biggest stars are NFL playoff favorites that might see more bench time as the season winds down. Whoever faces Veronicca in the playoffs, though, look out!

Reason for Hope: Mixon and Hall both find themselves on teams with sudden leadership vacuums under Center, which should mean a boost in rushing attempts. Also, Kyren Williams will be back in pads any day now.

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#2 – Chelsea

I already covered Chelsea’s situation in Blake’s paragraph above, but I want to add this message: wow. Chelsea, bravo on your performance this season! Auto-draft dealt you the hardest starting position, and you still built a division-winning team. You are the Cinderella story that fueled this season.

Reason for Hope: Jacksonville, Minnesota, Cleveland, and Buffalo all have decent shots at the playoffs, and Chelsea’s lineup is dotted with main characters from these teams. Plus, Joshua Jacobs is vibing with interim coach Antonio Pierce, and the raiders are playing for pride—we’re about to see some extraordinary RB play in Vegas.

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#1 – Jean

Leading the West Division and possessing advantageous H2H advantages, Jean is the clear favorite for the #1 seed. Two things have worked in Jean’s favor.  First, her team is dope. Jean’s roster is so good that she has Keenan Allen in her Flex position. Though a little weak in RB, Jean more than compensates at every other position. Second, Jean is lucky. Not only has she scored the second most points of any team, but she has the fewest points scored against her. The average score of Jean’s matchups is 134-117, which has resulted in only 3 losses all season. With talent and luck, Jean has dominated our league.

Reason for Hope: Besides Derrick Henry and CeeDee Lamb, every player on Jean’s roster will be playing lights-out ball in pursuit of postseason runs. Jean could easily enter the playoffs at 11-3, with little to slow her down.

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So, for those of you still reading, here is the projected first round playoff bracket as of today:

• For the Championship:
  • #1 Jean vs #4 Blake
  • #2 Chelsea vs #3 Veronicca
• For the Consolation:
  • #5 Zac vs #8 Joe
  • #6 Josh vs #7 Kayla