Well, that was unexpected.

In Week 12, the East Division pulled off a clean sweep against the West and made the playoff race a bit more interesting.

There are 3 major consequences from last week: a three-way tie for East Division Champion is more likely, Zac is now almost certainly eliminated from the playoffs, and Jean’s stability atop the West is slightly less certain.

The first of those consequences holds the most potential energy for chaos. W12 showed us that anything could happen, so let’s not count it out. Below I’ll run through how the tiebreakers would play out, but if you need a refresher on how tiebreakers work you can check the *note at the end of the post.

So with another week behind us, are there any updates to the playoff rankings? Let’s take a look.

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Commissioner’s Playoff Rankings:

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#7 – Zac (Randy Savage)

Expected Final Record: 5-9

It’s not looking good for Zac in the next couple weeks, with BYEs and brutal W14 matchups for his players. His best chance at the playoffs is behind him now, which was a win against Kayla last week. He’ll get a rematch against Kayla in the consolation bracket, though. Lookout for that revenge win!

If Zac’s stars deliver him at least 1 win, he would likely eliminate the loser (either Josh or Blake) from the playoffs.

Wildcard Angle: If Zac somehow wins out, then things get interesting. Zac would be tied H2H against Blake & Josh, and has a strong Points For advantage against both. It’s still win and in for Zac, if he can manage it! There is no room for error in this scenario.

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#6 – Kayla (Winnersville Prancing Pandas)

Expected Final Record: 5-9

Kayla did herself a favor with a win last week to climb to 6th, but she now faces a tough end of season schedule against Jean and Veronicca. The good times will end soon, starting this weekend with Jean.

Wildcard Angle: A win against Jean this weekend would be WILD. This would set up a situation where Jean might end the regular season out of the playoffs, due to odd H2H imbalances against Blake & Josh.

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#5 – Josh (Commissioner of Chaos)

Expected Final Record: 8-6

Josh has a couple unexpectedly advantageous matchups coming up, and the odds are fair that he’ll scrape by with 2 more wins. In that case, though, it’s likely that he still won’t have the H2Hs to make the playoffs (2/3rds of Josh’s losses come from his own conference). Josh’s path to the playoffs requires some chaos assist from the West Division.

Wildcard Angle: Josh’s future is out of his hands, as his wildcard into the playoffs requires a loss or two from his fellow East Division rivals Chelsea & Blake.

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#4 – Blake (Jordan’s Love)

Expected Final Record: 8-6

Blake will win out. He’s peaking at just the right time. In the event of a three-way tie in the East Division, Blake has the H2H advantage over Josh.

Wildcard Angle: Injuries to his stars or a loss to Joe or Zac would be disastrous for Blake, potentially dropping him to the 5th seed.

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#3 – Veronicca (Team NachoTaco)

Expected Final Record: 9-5

Veronicca will take down both Chelsea and Kayla to finish the regular season strong. She might even end up with the same record as Jean, but in that case her H2H disadvantage would still land her with the 3rd seed.

Wildcard Angle: If both Kayla and Chelsea manage to pull off an upset, then Veronicca needs to hope for 7-7 contenders in the East Division. In that case, H2H and Points For would both work in her favor.

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#2 – Chelsea (Team NFChel)

Expected Final Record: 8-6

Chelsea is most likely looking at a 1-1 finish to the season, giving up a loss to Veronicca in W13. With her H2H advantage over Josh and her Points For advantage over Blake, even with a loss Chelsea will finish the season as the #2 seed.

Wildcard Angle: Stumbling this close to the finish could be the end of playoff contention for Chelsea. If she loses the next two while both Blake & Josh win out, then they would push her down to the consolation bracket.

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#1 – Jean (Planet earth Clueless)

Expected Final Record: 9-5

Jean is reasonably going 1-1 in the next two weeks, given some tough matchups for her best players. In this case, there’s a strong chance she ends tied with Veronicca. But in that case, she would still end up as the top seed given her H2H advantage over Veronicca and the record & PF advantage over Chelsea.

Wildcard Angle: IF Jean ends the season tied with Blake, Josh, and Chelsea AND Blake finishes as East Division Champion, then Jean would drop to 5th and finish outside the playoffs. It’s not impossible, but it’s highly improbable.

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So, for those of you still reading, here is the projected first round playoff bracket as of today:

• For the Championship:
  • #1 Jean vs #4 Blake
  • #2 Chelsea vs #3 Veronicca
• For the Consolation:
  • #5 Josh vs #8 Joe
  • #6 Kayla vs #7 Zac

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*How do the playoffs work?

• The playoffs consist of 4 spots:
  • Each division will send its top team to the playoffs. These will be the #1 and #2 seeds in the playoff bracket. 
  • Next, there are two at-large playoff bids for the #3 and #4 seeds. All remaining players who are not division champions are eligible for these playoff seeds.
• Seeding is determined by overall win-loss record. Tiebreakers then follow a pattern of head-to-head (H2H) records, Total Points For, Total Points Against, and finally coin flip.
• Interestingly, every remaining regular season matchup will be East vs West. Wins in one division will happen at the expense of losses in the other, which will be an important factor while making seed predictions.
• The East Division is:
  • Chelsea (7-5)
  • Blake (6-6)
  • Josh (6-6)
  • Kayla (5-7).
• The West Division is:
  • Jean (8-4)
  • Veronicca (7-5)
  • Zac (5-7)
  • Joe (4-8).