Chapter 147: Elegant Randomness

So much of Fantasy Football is random.

Injuries already took out Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, AJ Brown, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Isaiah Pacheco, Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Mixon, Davante Adams, David Njoku, and Rashee Rice. Some of these are chronic IR residents, but some are just random.

Chris Olave, DJ Moore, Austin Ekeler, and Rachaad White have been unexpectedly eclipsed by backups. The hot hand seized the reigns, leaving some of us looking at what might be a waste of our valuable draft stock.

BYE weeks have begun. Unless you can see the matrix, it’s likely that your roster depth will be squeezed to it’s limits by BYEs at least once.

Also, who would have guessed that Jayden Daniels would have beaten out Sam Hartman for the starting job in Washington? Unfathomable. The only logical explanation for this is that Sam Hartman fell victim to an unfortunate and totally random set of events.

Why am I really thinking about this? Besides Hartman of course. My season is on the rocks after just 4 weeks, becoming a lovely case study in randomness.

By most accounts, I am having a stellar season. Because of some good draft picks and a couple savvy streamers, I am leading the League in points scored. Averaging 131 points a week. I have outscored the rest of the field in 16 out of 28 possible H2H matchups. That’s a 57% Expected Win Rate. Based on my team’s performance, my W-L record should be above 50%.

At 1-3, my Actual Win Rate is 33%, almost half of what it should be.

Why? 3 unlucky matchups.

• My points output is +56 over Blake so far this season, but I lost to Blake by 3 in W1.
• Then I caught a pair of left hooks:
  • One from Chelsea (148 points against me in W2, her season best so far)
  • And another from Veronicca (147 points against me, on a MONSTER W4 performance by Derrick Henry)

Matchups are random. I could be more diligent about setting the divisions and matchups, but I just let ESPN do all that randomly. In 5,714 out of 10,000 simulations I would have won my W1, W2, & W4 matchups, but I have somehow reached into the other 4,286 simulations to draw three losses. 3 times in a row, randomly matched up against an unlikely string of opponents.

For now, randomness is being dramatic with me. I kinda dig that, and I also kinda wish it would stop.

This game is so fun.

RANKINGS ACCORDING TO THE COMMISH

(ESPN’s playoff seed prediction in parenthesis)

(1) Veronicca (1st): 3-1, 514.60 total points scored
Commish Commentary: Blake’s loss and a monster performance by Derrick Henry have put Veronicca into the lead. A H2H matchup against Blake this week could create some comfortable separation for her at the top of the rankings. With 8 players averaging 15+ points per week, she has to be feeling good.

(2) Blake (3rd): 3-1, 467.24 total points scored
Commish Commentary: Well, it happened. Blake’s first loss exposed a PF deficit that could become a real issue for him. We’re only 4 weeks in, but Blake is already backing himself into a situation where he can only rely on wins to stay in the playoff race. The best thing he can do for his chances is to get a win this weekend over Veronicca, his primary competition.

(3) Zac (4th): 2-2, 516.26 total points scored
Commish Commentary: Zac should be feeling fairly comfortable right now. He’s just 1 win below the top of the League and he’s rocking a consistently dominant points average. There is some risk in his roster with injuries, which will require a careful eye in the coming weeks.

(4) Jean (5th): 2-2, 502.56 total points scored
Commish Commentary: Jean’s performance is generously above average, just 2 points behind the top 3 scorers in the League. Her injury report is healing as well, with Deebo back & Puka looking to return in 3-4 weeks. If Jean can keep laying down 135+ weekends like she just did, then her chances at the playoff will get better and better.

(5) Chelsea (2nd): 2-2, 476.92 total points scored
Commish Commentary: Chelsea is 2nd in the playoff race, due to her position in the division with the next three teams. This is a tenuous position, though, as a loss could drop her 4 playoff rungs, out of the rankings. Drawing a matchup with Jean this week doesn’t help, as Jean is averaging 6 points/week more than Chelsea through W4. She’s hoping for above average performances by her skill players to stay competitive.

(6) Kayla (6th): 2-2, 436.72 total points scored
Commish Commentary: Way to bounce back in W4! Kayla put up 140 points, with two thirds of her points coming from big performances in unusual roster positions (RB2, WR2, DST, & K). Kayla’s roster is looking solid and deep after one month of Fantasy.

(7) Josh (7th): 1-3, 523.92 total points scored
Commish Commentary: Will the League regress back to the damn mean, already? Josh is having a stellar season, outscoring every other team in the League on the aggregate, but somehow, inexplicably, has lost 3 out of 4 head-to-head matches. It’s not time to panic yet. But still: the time to panic is much closer than it used to be…

(8) Joe (8th): 1-3, 457.76 total points scored
Commish Commentary: I really like Joe’s roster. It’s a solid roster. His players have had some tough defensive matchups and injuries have hit him hard. Even though he’s warming the last place chair right now, he’s still a contender. The matchups thing will sort itself out with time. Hopefully, Kupp enjoys the long 2.5 weeks of rest that LA’s BYE week will afford him.

TIE BREAKING STATS

Eat, Sleep, Score — top 3 points scorers (highest PF, the tiebreaking measure for playoff eligibility)

• Josh: 523.92 total points scored
• Zac: 516.26 total points scored
• Veronicca: 514.60 total points scored

Maybe You Should Invest in a Lucky Charm — most points scored against them

• Veronicca: 530.86 total points scored by opponents
• Zac: 505.10 total points scored by opponents
• Kayla: 504.34 total points scored by opponents